By Jeanne Stanek
The global art market in 2024-2025 is not collapsing. That is the good news, but it is not running at the exuberant levels of 2021-2022 either. There was regional variation with the China market seeing a sharp drop by 31% in 2024 while the US and UK also declined though less dramatically. While overall values are down, the volume of transactions has risen driven mostly by lower priced works. Consequently, in 2024 the global market value dropped but the number of transactions increased to 40.5 million. At Art Basel in 2024, in Paris, Basel and Miami, the influx of younger buyers clearly influenced this new trend of lower priced works selling.
Many analysts describe a “pause” for 2025 into 2026, declaring that it is best to look for signs of stabilization rather than rapid growth. High-end sales are cooling, possibly due to older collectors staying out of the game more than younger collectors considering work by new artists and those commanding lower prices. Works in the highest price bands ($10 million) saw greater drops as the 2024 global art market value declined by 12% to $57.5 billion with much of the decline was from the top end.
Again owing to the influx of younger collectors, online and digital sales remain meaningful with online sales accounting for 18% ($10.98 billion USD) of the total art market in 2024, projected to grow further. However, although online sales are growing in importance, the share of total market they represent remains modest, undoubtedly due to lower prices commanded by work by relatively new artists and artworks.
In 2025, as young collectors continue to shape how art is discovered and bought.
private sales rather than public auctions are becoming more important. Sellers are opting for more controlled, discreet transactions, as sellers are not willing to pay the high percentages of auction houses to sell their work. Emerging and mid-tier segments are gaining attention. Collectors and dealers are looking at younger artists, different geographies, and more accessible price bands. The market appears to be recalibrating. Rather than booming growth, the market seems to be entering a period of less hype, more selectiveness. Value matters more than speculation. Collector sentiment is cautious. Collectors increasingly care about provenance, pricing transparency, how artist value is treated, and sustainability issues.
Tracking the market, we can’t assume that all art is booming. It is selective. Broad participation in lower tiers is healthy, while the top end faces compression. Finally, the art market does not exist in isolation. Inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk, global wealth shifts are all affecting behavior.
And dealers and collectors are worried about tariffs. Although many artworks appear to be technically exempt from the Trump new tariff regime thanks to legal carve-outs, under the “informational materials” exemption, there remains widespread confusion in the art world about classification, enforcement and what exactly will be caught.
Importantly, the cost of importing the materials and shipping associated with artworks have gone up even when the artworks themselves might be exempt due to tariffs on shipping materials, packing supplies, and imported components.
For example, some dealers believe that certain imported works, such as design-objects, mixed-material pieces and antiques might not clearly fall under the exemption and are so at increasing risk. Because of the uncertainty, many galleries, shipping providers and dealers are adjusting behavior including delays, extra paperwork, and more cautious acquisition strategy.
Although tariffs are clearly affecting the art market and sales at art fairs, creating buyer nervousness and reticence, tariffs themselves are not the only story – uncertainty, logistical problems, cost escalation, and shifting behavior add to lack of buyer enthusiasm. Although many works may technically be exempt from tariffs, the ripple-effects such as higher shipping costs/materials are very real. More broadly in the U.S. economy, tariffs raise risks of cost inflation, weaker export demand, supply-chain disruption and slower investment.
So, we are looking at higher-end buyers reticent to buy higher end artwork, perhaps looking at the possibility of an inflated market that will not last, whereas younger buyers see the chance to enter the market supporting the newer artists whose work they would like to acquire, with many years of appreciation, not only financial, ahead. This leads to a healthy and sustainable art market for the future.